Inleiding
Goede morgen allemaal op deze mooie dinsdag 18 maart 2025. Ik begin met een vrolijk liedje omdat het weer zo mooi is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bCGacIl2f0 Vandaag de resultaten van een experiment om georganiseerde misdaad te voorkomen via het concept van geconcentreerde afschrikking op daders. Een week geleden verstuurde ik deze ´kennisparel´ waarin dat concept wordt uitgelegd: https://prohic.nl/2025/03/10/852-10-maart-2025-focused-deterrence-delivery-guidance-how-to-deliver-focused-deterrence-to-keep-children-and-young-people-safe-from-involvement-in-serious-violence/ In bijgesloten ´kennisparel´ richt de politie zich op jonge en jong volwassen veelplegers of recidivisten die binnen de georganiseerde misdaad actief zijn. Deze strategieën combineren strikte handhaving / controle met verbeterde toegang tot praktische en sociale ondersteuning, soms ook wel een ‘wortel-en-stok’-benadering genoemd.
Gedurende 12 maanden van het experiment was sprake van een vermindering van 35% in recidive onder deelnemers in de behandelingsgroep in vergelijking met de controlegroep. Tevens was sprake van een toename van 25% in arrestaties van actieve leden van georganiseerde misdaad groepen. Die resultaten suggereren dat preventieve gerichte afschrikking een effectieve strategie is tegen vormen van ernstige georganiseerde misdaad en dat deze preventieve aanpak ook kan leiden tot mogelijkheden om georganiseerde criminelen te onderdrukken. Tevens werd de rekrutering van nieuwe leden binnen georganiseerde misdaadgroepen bemoeilijkt.
Kortom: een succesvol experiment! Een experiment dat wat mij betreft navolging / replicatie in Nederland verdiend, bijvoorbeeld in het kader van het langjarige programma Preventie met gezag. Voor meer bewijs van (effectieve) aanpakken van georganiseerde misdaad zie: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/360773928_Georganiseerde_Misdaad_Kennisparels_2020-2024_Een_overzicht_van_op_evidentie_gebaseerde_inzichten_rond_georganiseerde_misdaad
Bron
Denley, John, Barak Ariel & Noy Assaraf (March 2025). Police-Led Interventions for Deterring Organized Crime: A UK Cluster Randomized Trial Targeting Criminal Network Recruiting and Its Vicarious Effects on Co-Offenders. Justice Quarterly, 13 March, pp. 1-33. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07418825.2025.2473720
Summary
Serious and organized crime represents a significant global threat. In this experiment, we focus on preventing offenders from joining these groups and how this intervention affects the criminal enterprise of the organized crime group with whom the target offenders are associated. We apply a cluster randomized controlled trial in the West Midlands, UK, to test a form of focused deterrence approach—“preventative-specific deterrence”.
The intervention group received proactive and sustained police interactions (‘stick’) coupled with a police-managed pathways plan, designed to support desistance (‘carrot’). Control participants received business-as-usual conditions. Over 12 months, we detected a 35% reduction in reoffending among participants in the treatment group compared to the control group, but a 25% increase in arrests of active crime group members. The results suggest that preventative-specific deterrence can be an effective strategy against serious and organized crime and that prevention may also lead to suppression opportunities of organized criminals.
The evidence suggests that police-led initiatives—proactive case management of mature and prolific offenders to reduce recidivism—can achieve two simultaneous gains: crime prevention for those directly targeted by police officers and a vicarious crime disruption effect for active OCG recruiters. This replicable strategy suggests that the police can use supplemental approaches to arrest that are effective in reducing crime, among other benefits.
Afsluitend
Georganiseerde misdaad is een ernstig maatschappelijk probleem dat een bedreiging vormt voor het welzijn van individuen, gemeenschappen en staten. Overheden erkennen georganiseerde misdaad als een bedreiging voor de nationale veiligheid omdat misdrijven door criminele ondernemingen de integriteit van de staat aantasten. Dit heeft onder meer een ontwrichtend effect op sommige buurten waar formele en informele sociale controle totaal afwezig is. Hierbij komt dat (potentiële) slachtoffers vaan verplicht zijn om naast (potentiële) daders te wonen.
Het is dan ook van belang om deze ontwikkeling een halt toe te roepen. Dat kan blijkt uit bijgesloten ´kennisparel´. Gerichte afschrikking is een effectieve criminaliteitspreventieve strategie die afschrikking combineert door het verhogen van de snelheid en zekerheid van de straf, samen met het mobiliseren van actieve participatie en samenwerking uit de (lokale) gemeenschap tegen georganiseerde misdaad.
Gerichte afschrikking is gericht op het terugdringen van specifieke vormen van georganiseerde misdaad, bijvoorbeeld degenen die betrokken zijn bij bende gerelateerde misdrijven of georganiseerde drugshandel. Daarmee biedt deze ´kennisparel´ naar mijn mening prima gevalideerde kennis en handvaten voor politie en Nederlandse gemeenten, in het kader van het langjarige programma Preventie met Gezag. Ik zou zeggen ministerie van Justitie & Veiligheid repliceer dit experiment in Nederland. De beschikbare financiële middelen zijn daarvoor aanwezig via deze kennisagenda: https://www.wodc.nl/onderzoek-in-uitvoering/kennisagenda-ondermijning
| Table 1. Comparative framework of preventative specific deterrence, project Safe Neighborhoods and focused deterrence strategies. | |||
| Preventative specific deterrence | Focused Deterrence | Project Safe Neighborhoods | |
| Objectives | Aims to mitigate crime behavior through a two-pronged approach, utilizing both “carrots” and “sticks”: proactive police engagement for deterrence and promoting desistance through a rehabilitative plan. It focuses on police-led interventions, with officers directly engaging with offenders, without community support. | Aims to deter specific criminal behavior by instilling fear of targeted sanctions (or “levers”) and encouraging the anticipation of benefits for refraining from crime. This is achieved through the integration of three key components: (a) the involvement of law enforcement, (b) community mobilization, and (c) the provision of social services to help offenders desist. | Aims to reduce violence and gun crime through proactive policing, enhanced enforcement, stricter penalties, and collaboration among law enforcement, prosecutors, community leaders, and academics to identify, deter, and/or prosecute key offenders by increasing the certainty and severity of punishment. |
| Lead Agency | Police-led intervention with no community support, solely relying on law enforcement actions to warn offenders of increased surveillance and consequences. | A multifaceted approach combining law enforcement, community involvement, and social services: the community actively supports law enforcement efforts, reinforcing moral values and challenging criminal behavior. | A collaborative task force comprising law enforcement, prosecutors, criminal justice officials, community members, and academics works to influence the perceptions and risk assessment of high-risk prolific offenders. |
| Mechanisms of Deterrence | Deterrence is driven by law enforcement actions, focusing on two mechanisms: (1) Direct Effect: The immediate consequences of continued criminal behavior, and (2) Vicarious Effect: The indirect influence within criminal networks. | Deterrence is more comprehensive, as it combines both (1) police-led formal control and (2) community-driven informal control to exert a wider social and moral influence on offenders. | Deterrence focuses on altering offenders’ perceptions of punishment certainty and severity, utilizing deterrence-based strategies (e.g., focused deterrence) to target individuals, networks, and locations contributing to violent crime. It combines deterrence and incapacitation through “advertising” federal prosecutions, stricter sanctions, and proactive policing to increase the certainty of arrest for prolific offenders. |
| Target Group | High-risk offenders already involved in crime, with the goal of preventing future involvement. | Offenders involved in specific crime types. | Specific individuals who have offended in the past and are at the highest risk of re-offending, focusing specifically on high-risk, prolific, violent offenders and/or gangs. |
| Focus of Crime | Focuses on disrupting an unwanted pattern that the police are looking to break. | Focuses on a particular crime to which the system reacts. | Focuses on reducing violent crime and gun crime by addressing the individuals, social networks, and locations that are the most significant contributors. |
| Social Services | Social services are offered but not integrated into the intervention; offenders are given information on available pathways, but there is no pressure or follow-up to encourage engagement with treatment providers. No follow up is permissible with treatment provider due to data protection and confidentiality. | Active integration of social services in collaboration with law enforcement and the community, providing support and promoting moral responsibility to aid offenders in desisting from crime. | Integration of pro-social community groups (e.g., faith-based organizations, social services, schools) in collaboration with law enforcement to alter perceptions and calculus of risk among high-risk prolific offenders using strategies such as enhanced enforcement, stricter sanctions, proactive crime prevention, and the widespread advertising and evaluation of these policies. |
| Intervention Type | Proactive, with a focus on breaking a pattern of behavior through increased surveillance, “sit-ins,” random visits, and direct communication from law enforcement officers. | Reactive and proactive, involving both the threat of sanctions and potential benefits for desistance from crime. | Proactive, focusing on disrupting violent crime through enhanced law enforcement, targeted interventions, and collaboration between law enforcement, prosecutors, and community leaders. The approach emphasizes enforcement and prosecution of violent offenders, along with preventive measures against gun violence and illegal firearm possession. |
| Social Influence | Relies entirely on formal social control through law enforcement, without leveraging community support or informal social levers. | Combines formal police involvement with informal community-driven control, shaping moral behavior and encouraging offenders to desist from crime. | Relies on both formal social control through enhanced enforcement and severe sanctions, and informal social influence by integrating community groups and employing media campaigns to shift perceptions of risk and consequences among high-risk offenders. |
Tot zover maar weer, blijf gezond, optimistisch en wees vooral aardig voor elkaar. Alleen zo gaan we echt solidair met elkaar om. Tot de volgende ´kennisparel´ die valt in de regel op maandag, dinsdag en donderdag in jullie mailbox.