Inleiding en context
Hallo allemaal, het is vandaag woensdag 11 oktober 2023. Ik vertrek zo meteen naar Manchester om deel te nemen aan de adviesraad van een omvangrijk Europees subsidieproject op het gebied van criminaliteitspreventie. Ik zal daar in een later stadium over berichten. Iets eerder dan normaal toch nog even snel op de vroege ochtend een meer dan verse ´kennisparel´ in jullie mailbox. De laatste editie van jaarlijkse publicatie Criminaliteit en rechtshandhaving (C&R) is weer beschikbaar. C&R is in 1999 door Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek- en Documentatiecentrum en Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek opgezet. Sinds 2011 werkt de Raad voor de rechtspraak (Rvdr) aan deze publicatie mee en in de bijgesloten editie C&R 2022 ook de politie en het Openbaar Ministerie, waardoor de expertise verder is verbreed. C&R 2022 omvat de strafrechtsketencijfers en beschrijft de ontwikkelingen in de vorm van jaarcijfers. Wat zich qua ontwikkelingen afspeelt in de afzonderlijke maanden binnen het jaar blijft daarmee buiten beeld.
De bijgesloten 21e editie – Criminaliteit en rechtshandhaving 2022 – brengt de periode 2012 tot en met 2022 in kaart. C&R beoogt ontwikkelingen in en samenhangen tussen criminaliteit en rechtshandhaving periodiek en systematisch in kaart te brengen. De publicatie biedt statistische informatie ter ondersteuning van de beantwoording van vragen op het gebied van criminaliteit en rechtshandhaving en is bedoeld als statistisch naslagwerk. Deze C&R 2022 editie is vergelijkbaar met de vorige editie en bevat kernstaten en figuren met daarbij bondige teksten. De onderliggende gegevens zijn in de vorm van Excel-tabellen digitaal te raadplegen via de website van het WODC, met daarin ook gegevens van vóór 2010. Ooit lang geleden in 1996 brachten collega´s van mij en ondergetekende het ´prototype´ van C&R op de markt, die kun je hier nog raadplegen: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307483658_Crime_and_Law_Enforcement_About_victims_offenders_and_criminal_law Maar goed dat is om het collectieve geheugen even op te poetsen. Laten we nu naar de ´cijferbijbel van criminaliteit en rechtshandhaving´ gaan. Wat zijn daar de meest belangrijke bevindingen op statistisch gebied rond de ontwikkeling van criminaliteit en de rechtshandhaving?
Bron
Moolenaar, D.E.G., R. Choenni & S. W. van den Braak (oktober 2023). Criminaliteit en rechtshandhaving 2022: Ontwikkelingen en samenhangen. Den Haag: Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek- en Documentatiecentrum, 143 pp. https://repository.wodc.nl/handle/20.500.12832/3305
Summary
Thanks to the report’s drafters for making the following selection of some eye-catching findings:
The criminal justice chain for crimes
The criminal justice chain for crimes acts as a funnel: a selection process takes place at each chain stage. Victims experience many crimes, including almost 5 million traditional crimes, such as violence, vandalism and property crimes, and over 3.2 million online crimes, such as internet fraud and hacking, in 2021. Only a proportion of these are reported to an investigating agency. Most crime cases flow into the criminal justice chain to the police. In 2022, 806,000 crimes were recorded by the police. Incidentally, these may include cases without a victim. A small proportion of crimes flow directly into the public prosecutor’s office via special investigation services or special investigating officers. In 2022, the police will have registered about 257,000 suspects, of whom only a small proportion will receive a sanction directly, namely 6,000 in 2022 (punishment order or Halt referral). Most flow onto the OM. The public prosecutor can impose a sanction (47,000 in 2022 in the form of a transaction, punishment order or conditional dismissal), dismiss or summons or appeal (after opposing a punishment order). If a summons or appeal is issued, the judge imposes a sanction in most cases (62,000 in 2022)
From 2012 to 2022, the estimated number of traditional crimes experienced by citizens fell by 40%, while crime recorded by the police fell by 30%. But in the last year (2021-2022), we saw another 6% increase in registered crime. The number of registrations of suspects fell by 31% in the period 2012-2022, while the inflow OM fell by 19%. This decline is partly due to the COVID-19 measures. Again, in the last year (2021-2022), we saw an increase in the number of registered suspects by 5% and in the inflow to the prosecution by 7%. However, the difference between the number of registered suspects and the inflow at the Public Prosecutor’s Office has gradually narrowed.
The number of cases in which summonses or summonses are issued (after opposition to criminal orders) decreased by 24% in 2012-2022 but also increased by 7% in the last year (2021-2022). The ratio of summonses and calls on the one hand to the inflow OM on the other has decreased slightly from 0.48 in 2012 to 0.45 in 2022. The total number of sanctions agreed with/imposed by police, OM and courts decreased by 43% between 2012 and 2022. Over 2012-2022, the ratio of the total number of sanctions to the number of registered crimes falls from 0.17 to 0.14.
The criminal justice chain for crimes committed by minors
By 2022, the police will have registered about 28,000 suspects, of whom only a tiny proportion will receive an immediate sanction, 5,000 by 2022 (mainly Halt referrals). Most flow onto the OM. The public prosecutor can impose a sanction (2,000 in 2022 in the form of a transaction, punishment order or conditional dismissal), dismiss or summons or appeal (after opposing a punishment order). If summoned or called, the judge imposes a sanction in most cases (3,000 in 2022).
The number of registrations of juvenile suspects decreased by over 42% during 2012-2022. This decrease is stronger than that of registrations of the total number of suspects (-35%). The share of juvenile suspects within the total number of suspects decreased from 13% in 2012 to 11% in 2022. In the last year (2021-2012), the number of juvenile suspects increased more sharply than the total number of suspects (6% versus 5%).
Viewed over 2012-2022, the inflow of minors at the Public Prosecutor’s Office decreased by 42%. This decrease is equal to the decrease in the number of registrations of juvenile suspects. In the last year (2021-2022), the inflow to the OM decreased by 6% despite the increase in underage suspects. However, the ratio between inflow at the OM and registrations of underage suspects remained almost the same in 2012-2022, namely about 0.46. However, some fluctuations do occur in the intervening years. The number of cases in which summonses or summonses are issued (after opposing criminal orders) decreased by 47% in 2012-2022. In the last year (2021-2022), the number of summonses and calls fell by 5%. The ratio of subpoenas and summonses to the inflow OM, on the other hand, decreased slightly from 0.43 in 2012 to 0.40 in 2022. The number of police, OM and court sanctions combined decreased by 57% over 2012-2022.
The criminal justice chain for violations
The funnelling effect in the criminal justice chain for crimes is less visible for offences. In 2022, 461,000 nuisance reports were registered within the chain. A total of 468,000 sanctions were imposed by the police and the National Road Administration (RDW) for criminal offences. The majority are settled with a transaction or punishment order. A portion flows through to OM. In addition, special investigation services or special investigating officers can also submit offences to the Public Prosecution Service. The total inflow to the OM in 2022 was 132,000 cases. The OM can impose a sanction (47,000 in 2022 in the form of a transaction, punishment order or conditional dismissal), dismiss or summons or summons (after opposing a punishment order). If summoned or called, the judge imposes a sanction in most cases (47,000 in 2022).
Besides criminal sanctions, over 8.1 million WAHV (Administrative Enforcement of Traffic Regulations Act) orders were also imposed in 2022.
The number of criminal offences recorded fell by 19% in 2012-2022, although the number of nuisance reports rose sharply (65%). The drop was particularly steep in 2022 (31%), presumably due to the abolition of COVID-19 measures. The inflow to the OM decreased by only 7% over the whole period, but in the last year (2021-2022), the inflow decreased by 17%. The ratio of inflow OM to registered criminal offences increased from 0.25 in 2012 to 0.28 in 2022. The number of cases in which summonses or summonses are issued (after opposing criminal orders) decreased by 9% during 2012-2022. In the last year (2021-2022), the decline was 6%. The ratio of subpoenas and summonses, on the one hand, to the inflow OM, on the other, remained almost the same during the 2012-2022 period, at around 0.44, except during the COVID-19 period.
The number of police, prosecutor and judge sanctions combined fell by 25% from 2012-2022. The overall decrease is roughly the same in all chain stages, but differences exist in the intervening years. The ratio of the total number of sanctions to the number of recorded criminal offences fell from 1.05 in 2012 to 0.97 in 2022.
Afsluitend
Beleid en praktijk zijn uiteraard gediend met tijdige signalering van trends en ontwikkelingen in de criminaliteit. De publicatie van C&R is hierbij een belangrijke bron. Wat geconcludeerd kan worden is dat het de afgelopen 15 jaar goed gaat met de criminaliteitsontwikkeling in Nederland. De vraag die dan beantwoord moet worden is uiteraard hoe die daling en ontwikkeling is te verklaren. Welke duiding kunnen we daaraan geven? De publicatie C&R gaat daar niet op in, het is namelijk een statistisch naslagwerk. Je zou daarom verwachten dat de vele criminologen in Nederland, maar ook andere wetenschapsdisciplines zich met die verklaringen bezig houden. Wat echter opvalt is dat die verklaringen slechts beperkt zijn terug te vinden in de criminologische vakliteratuur.
In een eerdere publicatie noemde ik dit gebrek aan aandacht voor de verklaring van de daling van criminaliteit ´Criminology’s Dirty Little Secret´: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316968064_Criminology’s_Dirty_Little_Secret_Hoe_de_daling_van_de_criminaliteit_bijna_geheel_voorbijging_aan_de_Nederlandse_criminologie In die bijdrage wordt getracht om op basis van de internationaal beschikbare kennis verklaringen te geven waarom de criminaliteit zo gedaald is. Ook om van te leren, want, ´what goes down, goes up´. En bij de geobserveerde daling van criminaliteit is ook een aantal waarschuwingen te geven: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342803309_Het_beeld_van_de_criminaliteit_in_Nederland_anno_2023_Trends_achtergronden_en_verklaringen